Possible scenario
Earnings Reversal Rally
20% Chance
A positive earnings or guidance cycle could challenge the bear-market narrative quickly. Strong reports from TSMC, ASML, Nvidia suppliers or cloud customers would support the view that the selloff was mainly a valuation correction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +3.0%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.