Possible scenario
AI Demand Doubts
30% Chance
The bear market broadens if investors treat Anthropic's slowdown as evidence that AI model revenue cannot justify the pace of chip purchases. This would hit the highest-multiple AI semiconductor names first, with some spillover into software and data-center suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.1%
- Business Services -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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