Possible scenario
State Probe Confirms Failures
42% Chance
The most likely path is that New York's review finds Cornell University Police mishandled or incompletely transmitted the accuser's rape allegation to prosecutors. The outcome centers on administrative accountability, revised reporting procedures, and outside oversight rather than broad institutional collapse.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.