Possible scenario
Security Risk Re-Escalates
20% Chance
A renewed strike threat, drone alert, or nearby military incident puts the April accident fears back into focus. This is less likely than managed continuity, but the combination of a nuclear facility and Iran-Russia alignment creates a credible tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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