Possible scenario
Managed Nuclear Continuity
45% Chance
Russia keeps technical personnel at Bushehr while emphasizing nuclear-safety obligations and strategic ties with Tehran. The most likely path is continuity without a major military or sanctions rupture because Moscow, Tehran, and the IAEA all have incentives to avoid a nuclear-plant accident.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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