Possible scenario
US Policy Reopens
18% Chance
The first F-16V delivery creates pressure in Washington to clarify the status of Taiwan arms transfers after the reported $14 billion sale was blocked. Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department could split the issue into smaller sustainment, munitions and training packages.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- LMT+0.6%
- RTX+0.4%
- NOC+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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