Possible scenario
China Applies Pressure
30% Chance
Beijing responds to the F-16V arrival with military signaling, sanctions rhetoric or gray-zone pressure rather than immediate combat. This is consistent with China’s reactions to prior Taiwan-related events, including the 2022 Pelosi visit and later transit stopovers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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