Limited U.S. Retaliation

Washington responds with a controlled strike package against IRGC missile, drone, or radar assets linked to the attack, while avoiding targets deep inside Iran. This is the most likely path because the U.S. will face pressure to deter further attacks on Marines but still has strong incentives to keep Hormuz open.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.