Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
22% Chance
Oman, Qatar, or another intermediary opens an urgent channel to prevent further attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. personnel. Tehran may use the pause to preserve leverage without inviting larger U.S. strikes, while Washington may accept deconfliction if attacks stop.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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