Possible scenario
Coalition Escort Surge
24% Chance
The U.S. broadens the protection mission by bringing in NATO and Gulf partners, expanding convoy scheduling and aerial surveillance. This reduces the likelihood of isolated commercial ships being struck but may slow tanker movements and put allied vessels closer to Iranian forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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