Possible scenario
US-Iran Escalation
22% Chance
A direct U.S.-Iran military exchange remains less likely than contained disruption, but the prior warning of an imminent strike and repeated Hormuz incidents keep this tail risk significant. Any exchange would rapidly reprice oil, credit, and volatility over the next one or two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.5%
- Finance -2.0%
- Industrials -1.8%
- Consumer Services -1.3%
Tickers
- UAL-5.8%
- XOM+4.6%
- CVX+2.5%
- DAL-2.0%
- AAL+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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