Possible scenario
Managed Naval Disruption
42% Chance
Iranian and Houthi pressure keeps shipping risk elevated, but Tehran stops short of a formal Strait of Hormuz closure. The most likely near-term path is continued inspections, convoying, insurance repricing, and sporadic attacks rather than a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- FRO+2.3%
- CVX+0.6%
- UAL-0.6%
- DAL+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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