Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
24% Chance
Regional intermediaries, led by Oman and Qatar, push both sides to avoid a direct confrontation that would damage Gulf exporters and Asian importers. This path lowers the oil risk premium but does not fully remove it because recent attacks have already changed shipping behavior.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Services +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Industrials +0.9%
Tickers
- DAL+2.4%
- UAL+2.4%
- XOM-2.0%
- CVX-1.7%
- LUV+0.6%
- AAL-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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