Possible scenario
White House Veto Holds
40% Chance
Trump’s intervention becomes a durable constraint on Israeli military planning, with Washington making clear that unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran would risk U.S. intelligence, air-defense, and diplomatic support. Israel keeps forces ready but avoids a near-term attack while the U.S. manages escalation risk with Gulf partners.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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