Possible scenario
Limited Escalation Resumes
20% Chance
Despite Trump’s intervention, Israeli and Iranian decision-makers continue preparing for limited escalation. The most likely forms are a narrow Israeli action, Iranian proxy retaliation, or a Gulf incident that does not immediately become a declared regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.