Possible scenario
Alliance Rift Widens
25% Chance
The article’s disclosure fuels a public U.S.-Israel dispute, with Israeli officials arguing that Washington weakened deterrence and Trump insisting he prevented a wider war. The operational status quo holds, but political trust and military coordination become more fragile.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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