Possible scenario
Hezbollah Defiance Deepens
30% Chance
Hezbollah refuses to surrender the two senior figures and frames the investigation as a political campaign against the resistance. The cabinet and judiciary continue the probe, but enforcement becomes difficult without risking street mobilization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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