Possible scenario
Rapid SEC Settlement
45% Chance
The most likely path is a conventional enforcement resolution: asset freezes, permanent injunctions, disgorgement, and civil penalties. The SEC has already built a record on AI-washing and crypto-fraud cases, making early settlement more probable than a prolonged trial if assets and promoters are identifiable.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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