Possible scenario
Minor Criminal Resolution
25% Chance
Authorities could pursue a limited criminal resolution if crew statements support that an onboard assault or interference occurred. Given the decade-old blackout history and likely mitigation arguments, any outcome is more likely to involve diversion, probation, or a misdemeanor than a severe federal sentence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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