Possible scenario
Inquiry Quietly Narrows
40% Chance
The most likely path is that investigators treat the alleged 2026 Delta incident as an isolated onboard disturbance influenced by health, medication, or alcohol issues rather than a broader aviation-security matter. The resurfaced 2016 blackout makes a medical-context explanation more plausible and lowers the odds of a high-profile criminal escalation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.