Possible scenario
Shadow Campaign Expands
27% Chance
The administration avoids a declared U.S. strike but authorizes cyberattacks, covert sabotage, and expanded support to Israeli operations. This lets Trump claim he honored the pledge while keeping pressure on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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