Possible scenario
Pledge Holds
38% Chance
Trump keeps the public pledge not to attack Iran before the midterms, calculating that a pre-election strike would create political and market risk. The administration continues military readiness, cyber operations, and intelligence sharing with Israel without overt U.S. kinetic action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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