Possible scenario
Overt Strikes Authorized
20% Chance
Despite the pledge, Trump authorizes direct military action after intelligence suggests Iran is nearing weaponization or after an Iranian-linked attack on U.S. personnel. This is the clearest escalation path and would trigger a larger oil, volatility, and defense-sector move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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