Possible scenario
Bond Vigilantes Respond
20% Chance
Treasury investors, rating agencies, and congressional fiscal hawks force the administration to soften the message. The path is plausible because large deficits and heavy issuance make the administration sensitive to disorderly auction results.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.