Possible scenario
Southern Offensive Expands
20% Chance
Government-aligned commanders attempt to convert the Mount Numan gain into a broader campaign toward Taiz approaches, the Aden-Sanaa corridor, or Houthi supply routes. This would be a material battlefield development inside Yemen but still short of a regional crisis unless it spills into maritime or cross-border attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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