Possible scenario
Houthi Counterattack Builds
27% Chance
Houthi forces contest the government claim and launch counterattacks from nearby positions in Taiz and Lahij. This is plausible because mountain terrain often changes hands repeatedly and the Houthis have recently paired battlefield setbacks with threats and escalation rhetoric.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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