Possible scenario
Government Holds Numan
38% Chance
Government-aligned units consolidate their control of Mount Numan and nearby ridgelines in Lahij, limiting Houthi freedom of movement toward Aden-facing approaches. This is the most likely outcome because the headline follows earlier reports of a government recapture and suggests the front line is being held rather than rapidly transformed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.