Possible scenario
Turek Narrowly Wins
38% Chance
Josh Turek converts the late polling edge into a narrow Democratic pickup in Iowa, helped by strong turnout in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and competitive suburban counties. This is plausible because the polling sequence shows a volatile but genuinely competitive race after Joni Ernst declined a third term.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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