Possible scenario
Prolonged Toss-Up
16% Chance
The final vote count is extremely close, making Iowa one of the last Senate races to be resolved. This outcome is less likely than a narrow win by either candidate, but it is credible given the alternating poll leads for Turek and Hinson.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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