Possible scenario
Hinson Recovers Lead
34% Chance
Ashley Hinson retakes the lead in the final stretch and holds the open Iowa Senate seat for Republicans. This remains highly plausible given Iowa's Republican lean since 2016 and the headline's indication that the race is oscillating within a narrow polling band.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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