Possible scenario
Limited Military Exchange
30% Chance
The declaration that the war is not over is followed by a bounded military episode, but both sides avoid a full regional campaign. This is plausible because the June halt in fire reduced immediate pressure, yet neither Tehran nor Jerusalem has resolved the deterrence gap created by prior strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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