Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
15% Chance
Regional mediators capitalize on the ambiguity of Iran's statement to press both sides toward reaffirming the June halt in fire. This outcome is less likely than continued tension, but both Iran and Israel have incentives to avoid another U.S.-backed campaign after heavy losses earlier in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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