Possible scenario
Inflation Frictions Return
18% Chance
The PMI strength comes with signs of renewed input-cost pressure and capacity constraints. Markets view the data less as clean growth and more as a warning that manufacturing demand could complicate the disinflation path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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