Possible scenario
Hawkish Repricing
25% Chance
Investors conclude that a strong factory sector gives the Federal Reserve less reason to ease policy quickly. The growth signal is positive, but higher yields and a firmer dollar cap the equity reaction, especially for rate-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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