Possible scenario
Expansion Broadens
45% Chance
The PMI jump proves to be a real acceleration in new orders rather than a one-month restocking bounce. CHIPS Act spending, reshoring projects, aerospace backlogs and machinery demand keep the manufacturing recovery intact into late 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Technology +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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