Possible scenario
Jackson Lead Holds
46% Chance
George W. Bush's donation reinforces Susan Collins's establishment support but does not change the basic race dynamic. Troy Jackson remains favored because the latest public benchmark shows him ahead 57%-43% and Collins is still balancing Maine moderates against Trump-aligned Republicans.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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