Possible scenario
GOP Split Deepens
17% Chance
The Bush donation highlights the divide between Collins's old-guard Republican coalition and Trump-aligned activists. Instead of broadening her appeal, the story gives MAGA critics another reason to question her loyalty to the party.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.