Possible scenario
Workaround Gains Traction
40% Chance
TSMC and its equipment suppliers make measurable progress replacing or redesigning components exposed to Chinese rare-earth restrictions. This is the most likely path because TSMC has strong purchasing power, allied-government support, and suppliers with incentives to preserve advanced-node capacity.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Tickers
- TSM+1.5%
- AMAT+1.4%
- LRCX+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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