Possible scenario
Allied Policy Accelerates
20% Chance
Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and the EU respond with procurement support, stockpiling, and faster permitting for rare-earth processing outside China. The result would not eliminate Chinese leverage immediately, but it would strengthen the investment case for allied materials and equipment supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.3%
- Technology +1.2%
- Industrials +0.9%
Tickers
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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