Possible scenario
Talks Stall, War Contained
32% Chance
Negotiations continue but neither side accepts the other’s terms on frozen funds and military de-escalation. The conflict remains dangerous but geographically contained, producing a persistent risk premium rather than a market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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