Possible scenario
Ceasefire-for-Funds Deal
38% Chance
Qatar mediates a narrow agreement in which Iran receives controlled access to frozen funds in exchange for a halt to attacks on U.S. and allied targets. This is the most likely path because both Washington and Tehran have incentives to reduce military risk without formally normalizing relations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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