Possible scenario
Sustained factory upswing
42% Chance
The September industrial production beat is confirmed by follow-on data, with factories benefiting from CHIPS Act investment, aerospace production and machinery demand. This would reinforce the PMI improvement seen in early October and make the August factory-orders miss look like a temporary wobble.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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