Possible scenario
Mixed soft-landing data
28% Chance
The industrial production beat is real but not strong enough to erase the weakness in factory orders. Markets settle on a soft-landing interpretation: activity is expanding, but demand remains uneven across capital goods, autos and consumer durables.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Down
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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