Possible scenario
Fed-hawkish repricing
20% Chance
The stronger production data, combined with the strongest PMI since 2022, leads investors to question how quickly inflation can cool. The Federal Reserve does not need to react immediately, but markets price a slightly higher-for-longer policy path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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