Possible scenario
Tehran Takes Off-Ramp
38% Chance
Iran's leadership concludes that the blockade and seizure campaign has created an unsustainable revenue crunch. Tehran uses Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland to open talks with Washington while trying to preserve a face-saving domestic narrative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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