Possible scenario
Regional Retaliation Expands
22% Chance
Iran or aligned groups respond to the tightening blockade with asymmetric pressure rather than immediate compromise. The most likely retaliation involves shipping harassment, militia attacks, or nuclear brinkmanship designed to raise costs for Washington without triggering full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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