Possible scenario
Blockade Grinds Harder
30% Chance
The U.S. keeps Operation Economic Outcast intact and uses Bessent's statement to argue that the campaign is working. Iran's remaining barrels at sea are gradually detained, diverted, or stranded, leaving Tehran with few immediate revenue channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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