Possible scenario
DOJ Wins Partial Block
18% Chance
The court grants DOJ a more forceful interim remedy, setting aside the challenged ballots until California or LA County can provide individualized citizenship verification. California immediately appeals, arguing the order risks disenfranchising eligible voters based on an unverified federal list.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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