Possible scenario
DOJ Bid Rejected
40% Chance
The court finds that LA County's inability to independently verify citizenship does not justify setting aside ballots without individualized proof of ineligibility. California officials, including the secretary of state and attorney general, continue counting while preserving records for later review.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.