Possible scenario
Measured Tightening Path
45% Chance
The ECB continues tightening but uses Rehn's growth warning to argue against an aggressive terminal-rate repricing. Markets treat the comments as a sign that the Governing Council is still inflation-focused but increasingly sensitive to the eurozone growth slowdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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